Gerdau S.A. (ADR) (GGB) valuation at a glance
- Price
- $4.99
- Forward P/E
- 8.5×
- Market cap
- $6.21B
- P/S (TTM)
- 0.5×
CompaniesGGB
GGB
Gerdau S.A. (ADR)
Basic Materialslong steelBrazildual-classbuyback
Overview
$4.99-1.4%
Market Cap
$6.21B
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
14.2×
SEC filings
Rev Growth YoY
–
SEC filings
Gross Margin
13.1%
SEC filings
FCF Yield
11.1%
Calculated from SEC filings
Fair Value
Not established
yfinance
Conviction
3/5Family-controlled long-steel producer near book value after a FY2025 earnings trough, but the ADR sits near its 52-week high, not its low.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Updated 24d ago
Quality Snowflake
Overall 80/100
Value4/4
Future1/1
Past4/4
Health4/4
Dividend0/1
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
Gerdau S.A. is the largest long-steel producer in the Americas, operating integrated and mini-mill capacity in Brazil, North America and South America, controlled by the Gerdau family through Metalurgica Gerdau S.A. It screens as deep value on a trough-earnings basis: FY2025 profit fell to R$1.418bn from R$4.599bn in FY2024 on revenue of R$69.859bn (cached SEC XBRL companyfacts, CIK 1073404), leaving the ADR close to reported book value while net debt to EBITDA stays near 0.7x and a buyback shrinks the share count. The strongest verifier counter-evidence is that this is a recovery screen, not a distressed one: independent review recorded the ADR at USD 4.99 on 2026-09-16, 64.7% above its 52-week low of 3.03 and only 3.7% below the 52-week high of 5.18, so no margin of safety comes from price. The same review flagged that the underlying is a non-voting preferred share, that dividends to non-residents now face 10% Brazilian withholding from 2026 profits (Law 15,270/2025) and interest-on-capital 17.5% (Complementary Law 224/2025), so any gross yield overstates the net. Confirmation would be a Q3 2026 6-K extending the H1 recovery in Brazil-segment margin alongside continued buyback execution.
Bull Case
Balance sheetA 6-K filed 2026-09-01 discloses a new senior unsecured global working capital facility of USD 1,125,000,000, fully undrawn and maturing in August 2031, replacing an undrawn USD 875,000,000 facility, a 29% increase in committed liquidity with no new drawn debt.
Capital returnsA buyback approved 2026-02-23 covers up to 55,000,000 preferred shares and up to 1,441,120 common shares and runs to 2027-08-24, following a prior program under which 63,000,000 preferred and 1,500,000 common shares were repurchased.
Earnings recoveryThe 2026-08-04 6-K interim release reported H1 2026 net income up 52.8% year over year to R$2.48bn and adjusted EBITDA up 28.7% to R$6.39bn against the FY2025 trough.
Bear Case
Earnings qualityFY2025 profit of R$1.418bn was 69% below FY2024 despite revenue rising to R$69.859bn, so the decline was margin, not volume, and the mandatory 30% payout base fell with it.
GovernanceMetalurgica Gerdau holds 702,952,615 common shares, 97.9% of the voting class and 35.1% of total capital, while the ADR underlying is a preferred share with no vote except after three consecutive years of unpaid minimum dividends.
Price levelThe ADR closed at USD 4.99 on 2026-09-16, 3.7% below its 52-week high and 64.7% above its 52-week low, so the screen is not buying a depressed quote.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$6.21B
SEC filings
Enterprise Value
$8.20B
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue (TTM)
$13.53B
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
14.2×
SEC filings
Forward P/E
8.5×
yfinance
P/S (TTM)
0.5×
SEC filings
P/B
0.9×
SEC filings
EV/EBITDA
4.7×
Calculated from SEC filings
PEG
–
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue Growth
–
SEC filings
Gross Margin
13.1%
SEC filings
Operating Margin
7.2%
SEC filings
Net Margin
3.2%
SEC filings
Free Cash Flow
$686M
SEC filings
FCF Yield
11.1%
Calculated from SEC filings
Debt / Equity
0.3×
SEC filings
Current Ratio
2.9×
SEC filings
Short Interest
4.5%
SEC filings
Institutional Own.
30.6%
SEC filings
Insider Own.
0.0%
SEC filings
Shares Out.
1.24B
SEC filings
Float
–
SEC filings
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Now $4.99
DCF Summary
DCF awaiting Phase 2+
Discounted cash-flow model is built once research reaches the deep-research stage.
Historical Multiples
Multiple history pending
This section is being deepened.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|
Financials
Income statement pending
Awaiting source-linked statement data.
Balance sheet pending
Awaiting source-linked statement data.
Cash flow pending
Awaiting source-linked statement data.
Reporting currency is Brazilian reais (BRL) under IFRS; fiscal year ends 31 December. Source filings are the FY2025 annual report on Form 20-F filed 2026-03-13 and the H1 2026 interim release furnished on Form 6-K on 2026-08-04, cross-read against cached SEC XBRL companyfacts for CIK 1073404: FY2025 revenue R$69,858,532 thousand and profit R$1,418,438 thousand, versus FY2024 revenue R$67,026,656 thousand and profit R$4,599,062 thousand; equity R$53,798,489 thousand and total assets R$81,688,175 thousand at 2025-12-31. USD figures quoted here are labelled as such and are ADR market data only (close USD 4.99 on 2026-09-16, 52-week range USD 3.03 to 5.18), not translated financial statements; no BRL to USD conversion of statement line items is asserted. Capital structure at 2025-12-31 was 717,782,619 common shares (GGBR3, voting, B3-listed only) and 1,283,097,330 preferred shares (GGBR4, non-voting). 1 ADS = 1 preferred share, non-voting; the NYSE-listed ADR (GGB) is a Level II program with J.P. Morgan Chase Bank as depositary and carries no vote except the contingent right arising after three consecutive years of unpaid minimum dividends. Source: 20-F ↗
Catalysts
late Oct to early Nov 2026
Earningshigh relevance
Q3 2026 interim results 6-K
Date estimated from the prior-year Q3 2025 6-K filed 2026-10-30 (accession 0001104659-25-104489); tests whether the H1 2026 recovery in EBITDA and Brazil-segment margin extends.
Q1 2027
Earnings
FY2026 annual report on Form 20-F
Prior-year 20-F for FY2025 was filed 2026-03-13; the FY2026 filing sets the full-year earnings base and the mandatory 30% dividend base.
through Aug 2027
Corporate
2026 buyback program expiry
Program approved 2026-02-23 for up to 55,000,000 preferred and 1,441,120 common shares runs 2026-02-24 to 2027-08-24; execution pace is visible in share-count disclosures in Material Facts.
H2 2026
Regulatory
Brazilian dividend withholding litigation
Law 15,270/2025 imposing 10% withholding at source on non-resident dividends from 2026 profits is under challenge (ADI 7.912, ADI 7.914, Bill 5,473/2025), and the 360-day tax-credit implementing regulation has not been issued.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steel cycle and Brazilian import pressure compress the Brazil segment again | Market/Macro | High | Medium | FY2025 already showed profit down 69% on higher revenue; a repeat would remove the recovery that the current price embeds. |
| Country and currency factor risk concentrated in Brazil | Market/Macro | Medium | High | Second-opinion review recorded Brazil-issuer exposure as a single BRL and Brazilian-demand factor expressed across several names; most costs, debt and earnings are BRL while the ADR is quoted in USD. |
| Higher Brazilian withholding on distributions to non-residents | Regulatory | Medium | High | 10% at source on dividends from 2026 profits and 17.5% on interest-on-capital from 2026-01-01 cut net distribution yield materially below any gross figure. |
| Non-voting ADR underlying under a 97.9% holder of the voting class | Governance | Medium | High | Holders of the preferred class cannot influence board or capital-allocation decisions absent the three-year unpaid-dividend trigger. |
| US trade protection is a policy variable, not a durable moat | Regulatory | Medium | Medium | North America segment economics cited by management lean on Section 232 tariffs and anti-dumping measures that can be narrowed or lifted. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
–$4.99–
RSI (14)
n/a
insufficient history
50-Day MA
–
insufficient history
200-Day MA
–
insufficient history
Avg Vol (30d)
vs average
Support Levels
Resistance Levels
Technical inputs: SEC filings. See the record-specific source notes for measurement basis.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Institutional Holdersvia Source-linked
Institutional holder details unavailable
This research record does not include a holder-level table.
Insider Activity
Gerdau S.A. is controlled by the Gerdau family through Metalurgica Gerdau S.A., which the FY2025 20-F identifies as holding 702,952,615 common shares, 97.9% of the voting common class (GGBR3) and 35.1% of total capital. Capital is dual-class: 717,782,619 common (voting) and 1,283,097,330 preferred (non-voting, GGBR4) at 2025-12-31; the NYSE ADR represents the preferred class. Direction of company-level activity is buyback rather than issuance: a program approved 2026-02-23 for up to 55,000,000 preferred and 1,441,120 common shares runs to 2027-08-24, following a fully executed prior program of 63,000,000 preferred and 1,500,000 common shares. As a foreign private issuer Gerdau files no Form 4 for its own insiders in the ordinary course; Brazilian Material Facts filed on Form 6-K are the disclosure channel, though Form 3/A and Form 4 entries appear on the CIK in August 2026.
Detailed insider transactions unavailable
This research record does not include a transaction-level table.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|
Research Notes
2026-09-17SEC 6-K
Undrawn liquidity upsized to USD 1.125bn
A 6-K indexed 2026-09-01 (document dated 2026-08-31) discloses a senior unsecured global working capital credit agreement of USD 1,125,000,000 with nine banks under Credit Agricole CIB, five-year term to August 2031, fully available and undrawn at signing. It replaces an existing USD 875,000,000 undrawn facility. Because it is undrawn it raises committed liquidity by 29% without changing reported net debt.
2026-09-17SEC 6-K
Dona Francisca stake closing is immaterial in size
A 6-K filed 2026-08-06 reports closing of the acquisition from COPEL of a 23.03% equity stake in Dona Francisca Energetica S.A. for R$150.0m, total cash disbursement R$150,719,205.75 from own resources, with CADE approval. Stated rationale is renewable self-generation and decarbonization. At roughly 0.2% of market capitalization the transaction does not move the financial profile.
2026-09-17SEC 20-F
FY2025 20-F contains a stale withholding statement
Second-opinion review found Item 8 of the FY2025 20-F still stating that non-resident ADS dividends are not subject to Brazilian withholding tax, which conflicts with Law 15,270/2025 enacted 2025-11-26. That sentence should not be relied on for 2026 distributions. The same review confirmed the 1 ADS to 1 preferred share ratio and the absence of voting rights on the preferred class against the FY2025 20-F.
Sources
Gerdau S.A. (ADR) valuation questions
What is Gerdau S.A. (ADR)'s forward P/E ratio?
Gerdau S.A. (ADR) (GGB) trades at a forward P/E of 8.5×, and 0.5× trailing sales.
What is Gerdau S.A. (ADR)'s market cap?
Gerdau S.A. (ADR) (GGB) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $6.21B, and an enterprise value of $8.20B.