Ambev (ABEV) valuation at a glance
Ambev (ABEV) trades below the fair value estimate shown here. At $3.20 versus a $3.39 estimate, that is a 6% upside.
- Price
- $3.20
- Fair value estimate
- $3.39
- Upside
- +6%
- Forward P/E
- 12.0×
- Market cap
- $50.00B
- P/S (TTM)
- 3.1×
CompaniesABEV
ABEV
Ambev
Consumer DefensiveBeveragesBrazilCash-Rich
Overview
$3.20+0.6%
Market Cap
$50.00B
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
13.0×
SEC filings
Rev Growth YoY
5.0%
+5%SEC filings
Gross Margin
50.0%
SEC filings
FCF Yield
–
Calculated from SEC filings
Upside to FV
+5.9%
consensus
Conviction
2/5Consumer-defensive beverage giant at a 36.5% FCF yield and 39.4% cash-to-market-cap, slow grower, fortress balance sheet.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Updated 24d ago
Quality Snowflake
Overall 83/100
Value3/4
Future2/3
Past4/4
Health3/4
Dividend3/3
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
Ambev is the dominant Latin American brewer (an AB InBev affiliate). A 36.5% FCF yield and 39.4% cash-to-market-cap make it a defensive cash machine; the trade-off is low single-digit volume growth and heavy BRL exposure. It sits outside the core sub-$10 small-cap mandate as a $50B mega-cap, so it is tracked as a defensive watchlist name rather than a deep-value buy. Phase 1.
Bull Case
Cash Generation~36.5% FCF yield and cash equal to ~39.4% of market cap; near-zero debt, a defensive cash machine.
FranchiseDominant Latin American brewer with category-leading brands and an AB InBev distribution/cost backbone.
DefensiveConsumer-staple demand and a strong balance sheet provide downside protection in risk-off regimes.
Bear Case
GrowthLow single-digit volume growth; mature category caps the re-rating case.
FX / MacroBRL depreciation erodes USD-translated earnings and the dividend; Brazil-tax and Selic dynamics weigh on EM multiples.
Mandate Fit$50B mega-cap, outside the sub-$10 small-cap deep-value focus; included only as a defensive comparator.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$50.00B
SEC filings
Enterprise Value
$46.00B
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue (TTM)
$16.00B
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
13.0×
SEC filings
Forward P/E
12.0×
consensus
P/S (TTM)
3.1×
SEC filings
P/B
2.0×
SEC filings
EV/EBITDA
6.5×
Calculated from SEC filings
PEG
1.5×
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue Growth
5.0%
SEC filings
Gross Margin
50.0%
SEC filings
Operating Margin
28.0%
SEC filings
Net Margin
18.0%
SEC filings
Free Cash Flow
$4.00B
SEC filings
FCF Yield
–
Calculated from SEC filings
Debt / Equity
0.1×
SEC filings
Current Ratio
1.0×
SEC filings
Short Interest
–
SEC filings
Institutional Own.
6.9%
SEC filings
Insider Own.
0.0%
SEC filings
Shares Out.
15.70B
SEC filings
Float
6.00B
SEC filings
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$2.60
Base$3.39
Bull$4.00
Now $3.20
Bear Case
$2.60
Analyst low 12-month target (10 analysts)
Base Case
$3.39
Analyst mean 12-month target (10 analysts)
Bull Case
$4.00
Analyst high 12-month target (10 analysts)
Cash-Flow Snapshot
FCF (TTM)
$18.20B
FCF Yield
36.4%
Balance Sheet
$16.53B net cash
Rev CAGR
3%
Free cash flow and balance sheet from SEC filings. A full multi-scenario DCF is built at the deep-research stage; the fair-value range above is the working estimate until then.
Historical Multiples
| Year | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY22 | 2.6× | 0.5× | 1.1× |
| FY23 | 2.8× | 0.5× | 1.2× |
| FY24 | 2.0× | 0.3× | 0.1× |
| FY25 | 2.5× | 0.4× | 0.8× |
| TTM · | 17.1× | 0.6× | 1.3× |
Current multiple highlighted vs trailing history.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABEV | $50.43B | 17.1× | 0.6× | 1.3× | 0.0% | 51.0% | 18.0% |
| KOF | $22.55B | – | 0.1× | 4.0× | +1.0% | 46.0% | 8.0% |
| FMX | $43.04B | 27.6× | 0.1× | 2.5× | +6.0% | 41.0% | 3.0% |
| BUD | $157.64B | 23.0× | 2.6× | 51.9× | +12.0% | 56.0% | 12.0% |
| TAP | $7.67B | – | 0.7× | 5.7× | +2.0% | 39.0% | -19.0% |
| STZ | $25.41B | 15.4× | 2.8× | 10.9× | -11.0% | 52.0% | 18.0% |
Financials
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | 79,709 | 79,737 | 89,453 | 88,242 |
| Cost of Revenue | 40,422 | 39,292 | 43,615 | 42,864 |
| Gross Profit | 39,287 | 40,445 | 45,838 | 45,378 |
| Operating Income | 17,403 | 18,773 | 21,507 | 22,323 |
| EBITDA | 23,085 | 24,270 | 29,012 | 28,974 |
| Net Income | 14,458 | 14,502 | 14,437 | 15,503 |
| Diluted EPS | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.91 | 0.93 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | 14,926 | 16,059 | 28,596 | 18,638 |
| Total Assets | 137,958 | 132,644 | 162,508 | 145,087 |
| Total Debt | 3,845 | 3,501 | 3,453 | 3,387 |
| Total Liabilities | 54,630 | 52,500 | 62,928 | 56,312 |
| Shareholders' Equity | 81,956 | 78,969 | 98,642 | 87,914 |
| Shares Out. (M) | 15,742 | 15,749 | 15,728 | 15,617 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 20,642 | 24,711 | 26,099 | 24,450 |
| Capital Expenditure | (6,533) | (6,004) | (4,749) | (4,590) |
| Free Cash Flow | 14,109 | 18,707 | 21,350 | 19,860 |
| Investing Cash Flow | (5,004) | (5,766) | (5,463) | (4,950) |
| Financing Cash Flow | (16,338) | (16,115) | (10,352) | (26,772) |
Figures normalized from Ambev S.A.'s SEC 20-F filed 2026-03-03. BRL millions; EPS and share count per their units. Annual periods. Source: 20-F filed 2026-03-03 ↗
Catalysts
Oct 2026
Capital Returnhigh relevance
Payment of the final R$1.9B instalment of the December 2025 interest on capital
Fixed by the board on 2026-07-29; the last piece of the legacy distribution. Source: Q2 2026 6-K.
By Dec 2026
Capital Return
Payment of the new ~R$1.1B interest on capital
Declared with Q2 2026 results; about 0.5% of market capitalisation before 17.5% withholding. Source: Q2 2026 6-K via internal research file
Q3 '26
Earnings
Quarterly results
Watch volume trends and the BRL impact on USD-translated cash returns.
2026
Macro
Brazil Selic path
Lower rates would support EM consumer-staple multiples and the dividend's relative appeal.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Repurchase program exhausted with no successor | Capital Return | Medium | High | About 95% of the ~R$5.9B returned in 2026 went through the program completed on 2026-08-13; forward declared interest on capital is ~R$3.0B, roughly 1.3% of market capitalisation, so the trailing yield is not repeatable on current declarations. |
| Higher Brazilian withholding from 2026 | Tax | Low | High | Interest on capital is withheld at 17.5% (up from 15%) and non-resident dividends at 10% from 2026-01-01; net yield math built on 15% is overstated, and the Brazil-Poland treaty offers no relief below 15% on interest. |
| BRL depreciation vs USD | Market/Macro | Medium | High | Erodes USD-translated earnings and the dividend. |
| Low structural growth | Competition | Medium | High | Mature beer category limits multiple expansion. |
| Brazil tax/regulatory regime | Regulatory | Low | Medium | Dividend-withholding and excise changes can reduce net cash returns to nonresidents. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$2.00$3.20$3.50
RSI (14)
50
neutral
50-Day MA
$3.15
+1.6%above
200-Day MA
$2.90
+10.3%above
Avg Vol (30d)
15M
0%vs average
Support Levels
$2.90$2.00
Resistance Levels
$3.50
Technical inputs: SEC filings. See the record-specific source notes for measurement basis.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Institutional Holders
| Institution | Shares | % Held | Chg QoQ | Reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Eagle Investment Management, LLC | 347.0M | 2.20% | +3.2% | 2026-03-31 |
| GQG Partners LLC | 187.0M | 1.19% | +8.1% | 2026-03-31 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 34.9M | 0.22% | +43.2% | 2026-03-31 |
| Seafarer Capital Partners, LLC | 28.1M | 0.18% | flat | 2026-03-31 |
| Renaissance Technologies, LLC | 27.4M | 0.17% | +6.5% | 2026-03-31 |
| Massachusetts Financial Services Co. | 26.5M | 0.17% | -24.1% | 2026-03-31 |
| Brandes Investment Partners L.P. | 23.1M | 0.15% | +2.1% | 2026-03-31 |
Insider Activity
Controlled affiliate of AB InBev; large free float trades as ADRs. Detailed 13F/insider breakdown pending.
| Name | Title | Action | Shares | Price | Date | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zagman Paulo Andre | See Remarks | Sell | 136.2K | $3.41 | 2026-05-05 | $464.6K |
| Cavalcanti De Lacerda Eduardo Braga | See Remarks | Sell | 152.4K | $2.85 | 2026-03-27 | $434.3K |
| Malik Parente Guilherme | See Remarks | Sell | 21K | $2.76 | 2026-03-24 | $57.9K |
Additional issuer disclosures: SEC EDGAR company filings. Availability and filing forms vary by issuer.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABEV | $50.43B | 17.1× | 0.6× | 1.3× | 0.0% | 51.0% | 18.0% |
| KOF | $22.55B | – | 0.1× | 4.0× | +1.0% | 46.0% | 8.0% |
| FMX | $43.04B | 27.6× | 0.1× | 2.5× | +6.0% | 41.0% | 3.0% |
| BUD | $157.64B | 23.0× | 2.6× | 51.9× | +12.0% | 56.0% | 12.0% |
| TAP | $7.67B | – | 0.7× | 5.7× | +2.0% | 39.0% | -19.0% |
| STZ | $25.41B | 15.4× | 2.8× | 10.9× | -11.0% | 52.0% | 18.0% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Source basis: SEC filings; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-09-17SEC 6-K
Treasury-share cancellation and the repurchase program is finished
A material fact dated 2026-08-13 (6-K filed 2026-08-14) records board approval to cancel 279,000,000 treasury common shares, taking share capital to 15,484,664,889 shares, and confirms that the repurchase program launched in October 2025 reached its maximum authorised amount and is complete. No successor program was announced. The Q2 2026 release states roughly R$5.9B was returned to shareholders in 2026 year to date, and the verification run attributes about 95% of that to the now-completed program. Sources: internal research file internal research file https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1565025/000129281426004237/abev20260813_6k2.htm
2026-09-17SEC 6-K
H1 2026: organic growth strong, cash distributions down 86% on timing, withholding rates changed
The Q2 2026 release (6-K filed 2026-07-30) shows H1 organic net revenue up 7.2% and organic normalized EBITDA up 9.6% (reported +0.1% and +2.5% after currency translation), with margin expansion in every business unit. The cash flow statement shows dividends and interest on capital paid of R$1,184.4M in H1 2026 against R$8,692.0M in H1 2025, a fall of 86.4% that is largely a timing artefact of an outsized legacy payment in the prior year. The board fixed 2026-10-06 for payment of the final R$1.9B instalment of the December 2025 interest on capital and declared a new interest-on-capital distribution of about R$1.1B payable by December 2026. From 2026-01-01 Brazilian withholding on interest on capital is 17.5% (Lei Complementar 224/2025) and a 10% withholding applies to dividends paid to non-residents (Lei 15.270/2025). Sources: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1565025/000129281426003970/abevpr2q26_6k.htm, internal research file internal research file
2026-05-25Consensus
Defensive cash machine
FCF yield 36.5%, cash 39.4% of cap. Growth is the constraint and the $50B cap is outside the core sub-$10 mandate, tracked as a defensive comparator.
Sources
Ambev valuation questions
Is Ambev (ABEV) stock undervalued?
Against the fair value estimate shown on this page, Ambev trades below: $3.20 today versus a $3.39 estimate, about +6%. The methodology and per-scenario sources are set out in the Valuation section. Treat it as research, not advice, and do your own homework.
What is Ambev's fair value?
The fair value estimate shown for ABEV is $3.39. Its valuation scenarios span bear $2.60, base $3.39, bull $4.00. See the Valuation section for the basis of each.
What is Ambev's forward P/E ratio?
Ambev (ABEV) trades at a forward P/E of 12.0×, and 3.1× trailing sales.
What is Ambev's market cap?
Ambev (ABEV) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $50.00B, and an enterprise value of $46.00B.
What is the bull and bear case for ABEV?
Valuation scenarios: bull $4.00, base $3.39, bear $2.60. Each reflects a distinct set of assumptions; the drivers and sources are detailed in the Valuation section above.