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B2Gold Corp (BTG) valuation at a glance

B2Gold Corp (BTG) trades below the fair value estimate shown here. At $4.68 versus a $6.50 estimate, that is a 39% upside.

Price
$4.68
Fair value estimate
$6.50
Upside
+39%
Forward P/E
8.5×
Market cap
$6.10B
P/S (TTM)
2.9×
BTG

B2Gold Corp

Basic MaterialsGoldMiningProducer

Overview

$4.68+1.3%
Compare
Market Cap
$6.10B
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
11.0×
SEC filings
Rev Growth YoY
117.7%
+117.7%SEC filings
Gross Margin
48.0%
SEC filings
FCF Yield
–
Calculated from SEC filings
Upside to FV
+38.9%
internal
Conviction
4/5
Multi-mine gold producer with Goose first-gold in 2025 and a 3.4% dividend, operating gearing to a $4,500/oz gold price.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Updated 24d ago
Quality Snowflake
Overall 88/100
ValueFuturePastHealthDividend
Value4/4
Future3/3
Past4/4
Health3/4
Dividend2/3
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.

Thesis

B2Gold is a diversified gold producer (Fekola, Masbate, Otjikoto) bringing the Goose mine (Nunavut, Canada) to first gold in 2025. Minimal debt (D/E 0.14) and a 3.4% dividend give it both yield and torque, though the free cash flow behind that yield is withdrawn pending a read of the 40-F cash flow statement, for the reason set out in the note below: at $4,500/oz gold, incremental ounces drop a high margin straight to cash. The stock trades at ~0.64× P/NAV vs peers at 0.85–1.1×, with the market pricing Mali geopolitical risk as a near-permanent loss.
Bull Case
CatalystGoose project first gold in 2025 de-risks the growth story; Fekola underground first ore (Q4 2025) lowers unit costs.
MarginsRevenue +117.7% and earnings +250% as gold re-rates; ~10.9% FCF yield; analyst target ~$6.60 (+46%).
Balance SheetD/E 0.14 (only ~$10.5M lease debt), ~$387M cash and a 3.4% dividend, rare combination in the miners.
Bear Case
GeopoliticsMali accounts for ~55–57% of production; the Fekola permit decision is a binary end-June event under a new mining code.
CommodityGeared to gold both ways, a price reversal compresses the whole thesis.
Goose EconomicsGoose AISC is ~$1,000–1,100/oz (NI 43-101), not the lower figures sometimes cited; capex ran to ~$1.0–1.1B (an overrun).
HedgingPrepaid gold contracts cap some upside participation; they expire mid-2025 as an earnings catalyst.

Key Metrics

Market Cap
$6.10B
SEC filings
Enterprise Value
$6.14B
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue (TTM)
$2.10B
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
11.0×
SEC filings
Forward P/E
8.5×
internal
P/S (TTM)
2.9×
SEC filings
P/B
1.6×
SEC filings
EV/EBITDA
5.0×
Calculated from SEC filings
PEG
0.4×
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue Growth
117.7%
SEC filings
Gross Margin
48.0%
SEC filings
Operating Margin
30.0%
SEC filings
Net Margin
18.0%
SEC filings
Free Cash Flow
[awaiting: filing]
SEC filings
FCF Yield
–
Calculated from SEC filings
Debt / Equity
0.1×
SEC filings
Current Ratio
2.0×
SEC filings
Short Interest
2.1%
SEC filings
Institutional Own.
55.0%
SEC filings
Insider Own.
1.5%
SEC filings
Shares Out.
1.30B
SEC filings
Float
1.28B
SEC filings

Valuation

Price vs Fair Value
Bear$3.40
Base$6.50
Bull$11.94
Now $4.68
Bear Case
$3.40
Mali permit lost; gold reverts to $3,000
Base Case
$6.50
Goose ramps on schedule; gold ~$4,000
Bull Case
$11.94
M&A at ~1.2× NAV; full Goose + Fekola UG at $4,500 gold
Cash-Flow Snapshot
FCF (TTM)
$719M
FCF Yield
11.8%
Balance Sheet
$38M net debt
Rev CAGR
21%
Free cash flow and balance sheet from SEC filings. A full multi-scenario DCF is built at the deep-research stage; the fair-value range above is the working estimate until then.
Historical Multiples
Historical multiples
YearP/EP/SEV/EBITDA
FY2213.3×1.9×3.0×
FY23–2.0×5.0×
FY24–1.7×34.9×
FY2514.9×2.0×4.3×
TTM ·11.2×1.6×3.0×
Current multiple highlighted vs trailing history.
Peer Comparison
TickerMkt CapP/EP/SEV/EBITDARev GrowthGross MgnNet Mgn
BTG$5.96B11.8×1.6×3.0×+118.0%65.0%15.0%
AEM$85.91B16.2×6.3×8.7×+66.0%74.0%39.0%
KGC$32.65B11.6×4.1×6.3×+61.0%69.0%36.0%
GFI$35.41B10.0×4.0×14.0×+71.0%55.0%41.0%
AU$46.66B13.6×4.2×7.3×+65.0%54.0%31.0%
GAU$583M20.3×1.3×3.0×+249.0%51.0%7.0%

Financials

Income statement
Line ItemFY22FY23FY24FY25
Total Revenue1,7331,9341,9023,061
Cost of Revenue1,1281,1541,1961,530
Gross Profit604.2780.0706.21,531
Operating Income516.5674.6594.81,405
EBITDA925.3736.693.01,455
Net Income252.910.1(629.9)401.9
Diluted EPS0.240.01-0.480.28
Balance sheet
Line ItemFY22FY23FY24FY25
Cash & Equivalents651.9306.9337.0380.4
Total Assets3,6814,8754,8145,879
Total Debt57.2192.1437.9598.3
Total Liabilities569.4964.61,7782,238
Shareholders' Equity3,0083,8102,9833,594
Shares Out. (M)1,0751,3011,3181,341
Cash flow
Line ItemFY21FY22FY23FY24FY25
Operating Cash Flow–595.8714.5877.6895.8
Capital Expenditure(302.3)(74.6)(76.4)(16.9)–
Free Cash Flow–521.2638.1877.6895.8
Investing Cash Flow–(388.8)(845.3)(763.3)(892.7)
Financing Cash Flow–(211.3)(192.5)(69.1)58.6
Figures normalized from B2Gold Corp's SEC 40-F filed 2026-03-11. USD millions; EPS and share count per their units. Annual periods. Source: 40-F filed 2026-03-11 ↗

Catalysts

Early-mid Nov 2026
Earnings
Q3 2026 results
Not yet scheduled; estimated from the 2025 cadence. The read is whether H2 output reaches the roughly 81 koz implied by the guidance midpoint. Source: internal research file
Sep 22-25 2026
Investor Event
Precious Metals Summit, Beaver Creek
Company participation for 2026 not confirmed in the research run. Source: internal research file
Q3-Q4 2026
Permitting
Menankoto exploitation permit decision (Mali)
Timing unstated by the company; described as expected near term on 2026-08-06. Source: internal research file
Early Nov 2026
Earnings
Q3 2026 results
Not yet scheduled; estimated from prior cadence. Source: internal research file
2025
Producthigh relevance
Goose project FIRST GOLD (Nunavut)
De-risks the growth story; ~85% probability per company guidance.
Q4 2025
Product
Fekola underground first ore
Cost-reduction catalyst.
End-Jun
Regulatoryhigh relevance
Fekola permit decision (Mali)
Binary geopolitical event; ~55–57% of production.
Mid-2025
Macro
Prepaid gold contracts expire
Removes a cap on upside participation, earnings catalyst.

Risks

Risk matrix
RiskCategorySeverityProbabilityImpact on Thesis
Second-half-weighted production guideOperationsMediumMediumH1 delivered 69,138 oz, so the 140-160 koz range needs 71-91 koz in H2; a shortfall would be judged at 3x gold beta.
Guidance already narrowed lower once in 2026OperationsMediumMediumThe top of the 2026 range was cut by 50 koz and Fekola by 40 koz at the midpoint in August; a second cut would land on a share price that moves 2.5x gold on down days.
Mali permit / geopoliticsRegulatoryHighMedium~55–57% of production; Fekola permit is a binary end-June outcome; nationalization is the tail risk.
Gold price reversalMarket/MacroMediumMediumDirect hit to revenue and FCF given operating gearing.
Goose AISC / capex higher than guidedExecutionMediumMediumGoose AISC ~$1,000–1,100/oz and capex ~$1.0–1.1B; lower project IRR than early estimates.

Technical Snapshot

Price $4.68MA50 $4.66MA200 $3.986M +59.7%
2.763.384.004.625.24Dec 15Jan 29Mar 17May 01Jun 15
52-Week Range
$2.60$4.68$4.90
RSI (14)
64
neutral
50-Day MA
$4.30
+8.8%above
200-Day MA
$3.70
+26.5%above
Avg Vol (30d)
18M
+22%vs average
Support Levels
$4.30$3.90
Resistance Levels
$4.90$5.40
Technical inputs: SEC filings. See the record-specific source notes for measurement basis.

Ownership & Insider Activity

Institutional Holders
Institutional holders
InstitutionShares% HeldChg QoQReported
Van Eck Associates Corporation95.4M7.19%-8.5%2026-03-31
Pale Fire Capital SE69.7M5.26%+77.4%2026-03-31
Two Sigma Investments, LP43.1M3.25%+79%2026-03-31
Vanguard Capital Management LLC37.0M2.79%+100%2026-03-31
American Century Companies Inc35.0M2.64%+1.9%2026-03-31
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP33.5M2.52%+4.1%2026-03-31
Shaw D.E. & Co., Inc.28.2M2.13%-22.1%2026-03-31
Insider Activity
Insider ownership ~1.5%; institutional ownership ~55%.
Insider transactions
NameTitleActionSharesPriceDateValue
B2Gold CorpIssuerBuy984K$4.672026-05-18$4.6M
B2Gold CorpIssuerBuy1.5M$4.912026-05-15$7.4M
B2Gold CorpIssuerBuy1.5M$5.282026-05-14$8.2M
B2Gold CorpIssuerBuy1.6M$5.362026-05-13$8.6M
B2Gold CorpIssuerBuy1.4M$5.322026-05-12$7.7M
B2Gold CorpIssuerBuy1.2M$4.932026-04-09$5.8M
Additional issuer disclosures: SEC EDGAR company filings. Availability and filing forms vary by issuer.

Peer Comparison

TickerMkt CapP/EP/SEV/EBITDARev GrowthGross MgnNet Mgn
BTG$5.96B11.8×1.6×3.0×+118.0%65.0%15.0%
AEM$85.91B16.2×6.3×8.7×+66.0%74.0%39.0%
KGC$32.65B11.6×4.1×6.3×+61.0%69.0%36.0%
GFI$35.41B10.0×4.0×14.0×+71.0%55.0%41.0%
AU$46.66B13.6×4.2×7.3×+65.0%54.0%31.0%
GAU$583M20.3×1.3×3.0×+249.0%51.0%7.0%
Recognizable sector comparables. Source basis: SEC filings; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.

Research Notes

2026-09-17Company release
H1 production is 46% of the guidance midpoint; BlackRock files a passive 13G/A
Q2 2026 production was 34,391 oz and H1 69,138 oz, with full-year guidance of 140-160 koz maintained and all-in sustaining costs guided at $2,300-2,600/oz, per secondary summaries of the August results; that leaves about 81 koz for the second half to reach the 150 koz midpoint. A Schedule 13G/A filed 2026-09-04 shows the BlackRock investment-management entity (filer name on the form) reporting 21,062,752 shares as of 2026-08-31 on a passive basis. No other SEC filing has been made since 2026-09-01. Sources: internal research file https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1377757/000205211326000838/0002052113-26-000838-index.htm
2026-09-17Research
Week to 2026-09-16: down 9.4% against gold down 2.9%, no company news
The shares fell 9.4% between 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-16, about 3.2 times the 2.9% fall in GLD, with the declines on gold's down days and no company release in the window; secondary news feeds show nothing after 2026-08-06. This is the highest gold beta of the producers tracked here, consistent with a single-asset operation at $2,300-2,600/oz costs. Sources: internal research file
2026-09-17Company release
2026 guidance narrowed lower in August; Menankoto permit still pending
The Q2 2026 results release of 2026-08-06 narrowed 2026 production guidance to 820-920 koz from 820-970 koz, with Fekola cut to 390-420 koz from 410-460 koz, Goose at 170-200 koz and all-in sustaining costs guided at $2,370-2,550/oz; the Menankoto (Fekola Regional) exploitation permit from Mali was described as expected near term. No SEC filing has been made since 2026-09-01. Sources: internal research file internal research file citing https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/06/3340870/0/en/
2026-09-17Research
Week to 2026-09-16: shares down 7.2% against gold down 2.9%, no company event
Between 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-16 GLD fell 2.9% while the shares fell 7.2%, about 2.5 times gold's decline, with the falls landing on gold's down days (September 10 and 14) and no company filing or news in the window; a $0.02 dividend went ex on 2026-09-10 with payment reported for 2026-09-23 in secondary summaries. Sources: internal research file
2026-09-02Checked against SEC XBRL for CIK 0001429937 and the data feed statements
The free cash flow here cannot be verified and is withdrawn
The figure previously shown, $250M, is withdrawn rather than corrected, because no source available to this site supports a number in its place. The data feed reports free cash flow for this company that is identical to its operating cash flow in every period, $895.8M against $895.8M for 2025 and negative $78.8M against negative $78.8M for the June 2026 quarter. That equality means capital expenditure was treated as zero. It was not. Investing outflow for 2025 was $892.7M, of which $861.1M sits in a line the feed does not classify as capital expenditure, and for a gold miner most of that is capitalised mine development, which is capital expenditure in everything but the label. The company files a 40-F under IFRS and SEC tagged data carries its operating cash flow of $895.8M but no capital expenditure tag at all, so the deduction has to be read from the cash flow statement itself. Until that is done the honest figure is no figure. What can be said is the shape: subtracting the whole unclassified line would leave about $35M rather than $250M, and taking the feed at face value would give $895.8M, so the true number lies inside a range too wide to publish. The same failure overstated a candidate on this site once before, where a screened yield of 21.4% turned out to be 0.75%.
2026-06-01Internal
Gold-torque + dividend profile
Diversified producer with operating gearing to gold plus a 3.4% yield. Fekola permit (Mali) and Goose ramp are the watch items; Goose AISC corrected upward to ~$1,000–1,100/oz.

Sources

B2Gold Corp valuation questions

Is B2Gold Corp (BTG) stock undervalued?

Against the fair value estimate shown on this page, B2Gold Corp trades below: $4.68 today versus a $6.50 estimate, about +39%. The methodology and per-scenario sources are set out in the Valuation section. Treat it as research, not advice, and do your own homework.

What is B2Gold Corp's fair value?

The fair value estimate shown for BTG is $6.50. Its valuation scenarios span bear $3.40, base $6.50, bull $11.94. See the Valuation section for the basis of each.

What is B2Gold Corp's forward P/E ratio?

B2Gold Corp (BTG) trades at a forward P/E of 8.5×, and 2.9× trailing sales.

What is B2Gold Corp's market cap?

B2Gold Corp (BTG) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $6.10B, and an enterprise value of $6.14B.

What is the bull and bear case for BTG?

Valuation scenarios: bull $11.94, base $6.50, bear $3.40. Each reflects a distinct set of assumptions; the drivers and sources are detailed in the Valuation section above.