Clover Health (CLOV) valuation at a glance
- Price
- $4.73
- Forward P/E
- 47.3×
- Market cap
- $2.49B
- P/S (TTM)
- 1.1×
CompaniesCLOV
CLOV
Clover Health
HealthcareMedicare AdvantageTurnaround
Overview
$4.73+1.7%
Market Cap
$2.49B
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
–
SEC filings
Rev Growth YoY
62.0%
+62%SEC filings
Gross Margin
18.4%
SEC filings
FCF Yield
3.0%
Calculated from SEC filings
Fair Value
Not established
internal
Conviction
3/5Medicare Advantage insurer at its first profitable quarter, but already up +199% off the low and trading above the $4.15 analyst target on a 47× forward P/E.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Updated 24d ago
Quality Snowflake
Overall 70/100
Value2/2
Future2/2
Past2/4
Health4/4
Dividend0/1
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
Clover Health is a tech-enabled Medicare Advantage insurer using its Clover Assistant AI platform to manage chronic disease earlier. Q1 2026 delivered ~$749M revenue (+62% YoY) and $27.3M net income, its first profitable quarter, and the SEC investigation closed in Sept 2024. But the stock is NOT cheap today: it has re-rated +199% off its $1.58 low to within ~9% of its 52-week high, trades at a 47× forward P/E, and sits ABOVE the $4.15 analyst consensus target. The recovery trade is substantially complete.
Bull Case
InflectionFirst-ever GAAP profitable quarter (Q1 2026, $27.3M net income); FY2026 guide ~$2.81–2.92B revenue (+49%) and $0–20M GAAP net income.
AI MoatClover Assistant aggregates 100+ data sources; cited ~8% MCR improvement after year one, 95%+ member retention, 53% PPO growth.
Balance SheetZero debt, $203M cash, $75M FCF. A federal-court ruling forcing a 3.5→4.5 PPO star recalc could release ~$120M of bonus payments (external/unverified).
Bear Case
ValuationUp +199% off the low to within ~9% of the high; consensus target $4.15 is BELOW the price (−12% implied). Not a beaten-down deep-value setup.
Multiple47× forward P/E on razor-thin first-year profitability, priced for perfection; any MCR miss reopens an infinite-P/E scenario.
Margins18.4% gross margin; Medicare Advantage is structurally low-margin and any MCR deterioration flips profit to loss fast.
GovernanceSPAC legacy (2021 Social Capital), dual-class structure, only 4.4% insider ownership; two prior sub-$1 delisting notices.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$2.49B
SEC filings
Enterprise Value
$2.29B
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue (TTM)
$2.21B
SEC filings
P/E (TTM)
–
SEC filings
Forward P/E
47.3×
internal
P/S (TTM)
1.1×
SEC filings
P/B
7.3×
SEC filings
EV/EBITDA
–
Calculated from SEC filings
PEG
–
Calculated from SEC filings
Revenue Growth
62.0%
SEC filings
Gross Margin
18.4%
SEC filings
Operating Margin
-2.6%
SEC filings
Net Margin
-2.6%
SEC filings
Free Cash Flow
$75M
SEC filings
FCF Yield
3.0%
Calculated from SEC filings
Debt / Equity
0.0×
SEC filings
Current Ratio
1.3×
SEC filings
Short Interest
6.9%
SEC filings
Institutional Own.
30.0%
SEC filings
Insider Own.
4.4%
SEC filings
Shares Out.
480.0M
SEC filings
Float
400.0M
SEC filings
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$3.00
Base$5.50
Bull$9.00
Now $4.73
Bear Case
$3.00
MCR deteriorates, returns to losses; multiple collapses
Base Case
$5.50
$2.85B rev, $50–60M adj EBITDA; stays $4–7 range (analyst $4.15)
Bull Case
$9.00
Consecutive profitable years + Counterpart Health licensing; re-rate to tech-enabled insurer
Cash-Flow Snapshot
FCF (TTM)
$75M
FCF Yield
3.0%
Balance Sheet
$204M net cash
Rev CAGR
21%
Free cash flow and balance sheet from SEC filings. A full multi-scenario DCF is built at the deep-research stage; the fair-value range above is the working estimate until then.
Historical Multiples
| Year | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY22 | – | 0.4× | – |
| FY23 | – | 0.4× | – |
| FY24 | – | 1.2× | – |
| FY25 | – | 0.6× | – |
| TTM · | – | 1.1× | – |
Current multiple highlighted vs trailing history.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLOV | $2.53B | – | 1.1× | – | +62.0% | 18.0% | -3.0% |
| ALHC | $4.09B | 197.8× | 1.0× | 55.0× | +33.0% | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| OSCR | $8.79B | – | 0.7× | 61.9× | +53.0% | 17.0% | 0.0% |
| CNC | $31.31B | – | 0.2× | 8.3× | +5.0% | 11.0% | -4.0% |
| HUM | $45.65B | 40.7× | 0.3× | 11.3× | +24.0% | 14.0% | 1.0% |
| MOH | $10.52B | 54.1× | 0.2× | 8.2× | -4.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
Financials
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | 1,097 | 1,261 | 1,371 | 1,924 |
| Cost of Revenue | 993.1 | 1,005 | 1,006 | 1,568 |
| Gross Profit | 103.5 | 256.0 | 364.8 | 355.9 |
| Operating Income | (286.7) | (179.6) | (45.5) | (85.5) |
| EBITDA | (252.0) | (207.6) | (44.9) | (83.9) |
| Net Income | (339.6) | (213.4) | (43.0) | (85.5) |
| Diluted EPS | -0.71 | -0.44 | -0.08 | -0.17 |
| Line Item | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | – | 103.8 | 116.4 | 194.5 | 78.3 |
| Total Assets | – | 808.6 | 570.7 | 580.7 | 541.0 |
| Total Debt | 27.8 | 5.9 | 4.7 | – | – |
| Total Liabilities | – | 451.7 | 284.3 | 239.6 | 232.3 |
| Shareholders' Equity | – | 356.9 | 286.4 | 341.1 | 308.7 |
| Shares Out. (M) | – | 478.4 | 489.1 | 503.5 | 519.0 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | (203.9) | (144.7) | 34.8 | (66.9) |
| Capital Expenditure | (4.5) | (0.6) | (1.6) | (2.0) |
| Free Cash Flow | (208.4) | (145.2) | 33.3 | (69.0) |
| Investing Cash Flow | 95.1 | 140.0 | 0.6 | 4.1 |
| Financing Cash Flow | (5.0) | (5.1) | (17.4) | (53.4) |
Figures normalized from Clover Health Investments, Corp's SEC 10-K filed 2026-02-27. USD millions; EPS and share count per their units. Annual periods. Source: 10-K filed 2026-02-27 ↗
Catalysts
Oct 2026
Regulatory
CMS 2027 Star ratings release
Annual CMS cadence; the company said on 2026-08-20 that ratings are not the driver of its outlook, so the market reaction is the test of that claim. Source: internal research file
Aug '26
Earningshigh relevance
Q2 2026, confirm GAAP profitability
A second consecutive profitable quarter would signal a durable inflection and could re-rate toward 1.5–2× P/S.
Q1 '27
Regulatory
CMS 2027 rate notice (new 4.5-star PPO)
Higher star rating releases quality-bonus payments (~$120M cited, unverified) and lifts 2027 benchmark reimbursement.
12–24 mo
Business
Counterpart Health first B2B licensing deal
First third-party payer licensing revenue would shift the valuation framework toward tech-enabled insurer.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| One-way officer selling | Governance | Medium | High | Twelve open-market sales and zero purchases by five officers in ten weeks, led by the CEO, at prices from $4.39 to $5.32. |
| Share count up 7.2% year over year | Dilution | Low | High | Diluted weighted shares rose to 545.4M; equity compensation offsets part of any per-share earnings recovery. |
| Stock ahead of analyst target | Market/Macro | High | High | Consensus $4.15 is below the price; +199% run already prices in much of the recovery. |
| MCR deterioration | Execution | High | Medium | 18.4% gross margin; any medical-cost inflation or adverse selection flips profit to loss. |
| 47× forward P/E | Market/Macro | Medium | Medium | Priced for perfection; a single loss quarter reopens an infinite-P/E narrative. |
| CMS reimbursement / governance overhang | Regulatory | Medium | Medium | MA rate cuts and star-methodology changes; dual-class structure with only 4.4% insider ownership. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$1.58$4.73$5.18
RSI (14)
60
neutral
50-Day MA
$4.40
+7.5%above
200-Day MA
$3.40
+39.1%above
Avg Vol (30d)
20M
+5%vs average
Support Levels
$4.15$3.50$1.58
Resistance Levels
$5.18
Technical inputs: SEC filings. See the record-specific source notes for measurement basis.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Institutional Holders
| Institution | Shares | % Held | Chg QoQ | Reported |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackrock Inc. | 31.8M | 7.39% | -1.4% | 2026-03-31 |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | 17.0M | 3.94% | +100% | 2026-03-31 |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | 10.1M | 2.33% | +2.7% | 2026-03-31 |
| State Street Corporation | 9.6M | 2.22% | +2.6% | 2026-03-31 |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc. | 5.3M | 1.23% | +13% | 2026-03-31 |
| PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | 3.8M | 0.87% | flat | 2026-03-31 |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | 3.7M | 0.86% | +100% | 2026-03-31 |
Insider Activity
Institutions ~30%; insiders ~4.4% (dual-class). Short interest ~6.9%.
| Name | Title | Action | Shares | Price | Date | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reynoso Jamie L. | Officer | Sell | 7K | $4.91 | 2026-06-11 | $36K |
| Wai Conrad | Officer | Sell | 220K | $3.99 | 2026-05-28 | $880K |
| Edwards Carladenise Armbrister | Director | Sell | 67K | $3.42 | 2026-05-18 | $230K |
| Priest Brady Patrick | Officer | Sell | 98K | $3.52 | 2026-05-13 | $345K |
| Reynoso Jamie L. | Officer | Sell | 6K | $1.91 | 2026-03-18 | $11K |
| Priest Brady Patrick | Officer | Sell | 175K | $2.17 | 2026-03-04 | $380K |
Additional issuer disclosures: SEC EDGAR company filings. Availability and filing forms vary by issuer.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLOV | $2.53B | – | 1.1× | – | +62.0% | 18.0% | -3.0% |
| ALHC | $4.09B | 197.8× | 1.0× | 55.0× | +33.0% | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| OSCR | $8.79B | – | 0.7× | 61.9× | +53.0% | 17.0% | 0.0% |
| CNC | $31.31B | – | 0.2× | 8.3× | +5.0% | 11.0% | -4.0% |
| HUM | $45.65B | 40.7× | 0.3× | 11.3× | +24.0% | 14.0% | 1.0% |
| MOH | $10.52B | 54.1× | 0.2× | 8.2× | -4.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Source basis: SEC filings; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-09-17SEC 10-Q
Q2 2026 10-Q: revenue up 56%, trailing operating loss, share count up 7%
The Q2 2026 10-Q (filed 2026-08-07) gives trailing revenue of $2.48B, up 55.6%, a trailing operating loss of $18.4M, operating cash flow of $77.0M and cash plus available-for-sale securities of $238.6M with no debt. Diluted weighted shares rose 7.2% year over year to 545.4M. A supplemental Q&A filed 2026-08-20 states that Star ratings are not the driver of the outlook. Sources: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1801170/000180117026000200/, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1801170/000180117026000214/axex9912q26supplementalq.htm, internal research file
2026-09-17Research
Twelve open-market sales by officers since July
Nineteen Form 4s since 2026-07-09, with Form 144 notices on 07-20, 08-07, 08-10, 08-14 and 08-17, record twelve code-S sales and no purchases: the CEO sold 313,476 shares at $5.32 on 2026-07-01, 62,711 at $4.67 on 07-16 and 87,798 at $4.65 on 08-10, with the interim CFO, chief legal officer, the Medicare Advantage CEO and the Counterpart Health CEO also selling between $4.39 and $5.26. The cadence is consistent with 10b5-1 plans, but the direction is one way. Sources: internal research file
2026-09-02Recomputed from SEC XBRL company facts for CIK 0001801170
The operating margin on this page was one quarter, not twelve months
This page previously showed an operating margin of 3.6%. That figure is the quarter ended 31 March 2026 on its own, operating income of $27,334,000 on revenue of $749,189,000, while every other figure beside it is trailing twelve months. On the same window as the revenue shown here the operating margin is negative. Full year 2025 operating income was -$85,529,000, the March 2025 quarter was -$1,274,000 and the March 2026 quarter was $27,334,000, giving trailing operating income of -$56,921,000 on revenue of $2,211,166,000, or -2.6%. The company turned operating-profitable in the two most recent quarters but has not yet done so across a trailing year. Net margin was already struck on the correct window and is unchanged, and for 2025 the operating loss and the net loss are the same $85.5M figure.
2026-06-03Internal
First profitable quarter, but fully re-rated
$27.3M Q1 net income, first profitable quarter ever. Data-conflict flag was stale. However the +199% run leaves the stock above the $4.15 analyst target on a 47× forward P/E; recovery trade largely complete.
Sources
Clover Health valuation questions
What is Clover Health's forward P/E ratio?
Clover Health (CLOV) trades at a forward P/E of 47.3×, and 1.1× trailing sales.
What is Clover Health's market cap?
Clover Health (CLOV) has a market capitalization (its market value, often searched as "net worth") of $2.49B, and an enterprise value of $2.29B.
What is the bull and bear case for CLOV?
Valuation scenarios: bull $9.00, base $5.50, bear $3.00. Each reflects a distinct set of assumptions; the drivers and sources are detailed in the Valuation section above.