CompaniesBTG
S1Overview
BTG
B2Gold Corp
Basic MaterialsGoldMiningProducer
$4.68+1.3%
Market Cap
$6.10B
SEC 40-F / company IR
P/E (TTM)
11.0×
via financials
Rev Growth YoY
117.7%
+117.7%SEC filing
Gross Margin
48.0%
SEC filing
FCF Yield
11.8%
calculated
Upside to FV
+38.9%
vs fair value
Conviction
4/5Multi-mine gold producer with Goose first-gold in 2025 and a 3.4% dividend — operating leverage to a $4,500/oz gold price.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep DiveFull Model
Updated 15d ago
S2Thesis
B2Gold is a diversified gold producer (Fekola, Masbate, Otjikoto) bringing the Goose mine (Nunavut, Canada) to first gold in 2025. Minimal leverage (D/E 0.14), an 11.8% FCF yield and a 3.4% dividend give it both yield and torque: at $4,500/oz gold, incremental ounces drop a high margin straight to cash. The stock trades at ~0.64× P/NAV vs peers at 0.85–1.1×, with the market pricing Mali geopolitical risk as a near-permanent loss.
Bull Case
CatalystGoose project first gold in 2025 de-risks the growth story; Fekola underground first ore (Q4 2025) lowers unit costs.
LeverageRevenue +117.7% and earnings +250% as gold re-rates; ~10.9% FCF yield; analyst target ~$6.60 (+46%).
Balance SheetD/E 0.14 (only ~$10.5M lease debt), ~$387M cash and a 3.4% dividend — rare combination in the miners.
Bear Case
GeopoliticsMali accounts for ~55–57% of production; the Fekola permit decision is a binary end-June event under a new mining code.
CommodityLevered to gold both ways — a price reversal compresses the whole thesis.
Goose EconomicsGoose AISC is ~$1,000–1,100/oz (NI 43-101), not the lower figures sometimes cited; capex ran to ~$1.0–1.1B (an overrun).
HedgingPrepaid gold contracts cap some upside participation; they expire mid-2025 as an earnings catalyst.
S3Key Metrics
Market Cap
$6.10B
SEC 40-F / company IR
Enterprise Value
$6.14B
calculated
Revenue (TTM)
$2.10B
SEC filing
P/E (TTM)
11.0×
via financials
Forward P/E
8.5×
consensus
P/S (TTM)
2.9×
via financials
P/B
1.6×
via financials
EV/EBITDA
5.0×
calculated
PEG
0.4×
calculated
Revenue Growth
117.7%
SEC filing
Gross Margin
48.0%
SEC filing
Operating Margin
30.0%
SEC filing
Net Margin
18.0%
SEC filing
Free Cash Flow
$250M
SEC filing
FCF Yield
11.8%
calculated
Debt / Equity
0.1×
SEC filing
Current Ratio
2.0×
SEC filing
Short Interest
2.1%
exchange
Institutional Own.
55.0%
13F
Insider Own.
1.5%
proxy
Shares Out.
1.30B
SEC filing
Float
1.28B
exchange
S4Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$3.40
Base$6.50
Bull$11.94
Now $4.68
Bear Case
$3.40
Mali permit lost; gold reverts to $3,000
Base Case
$6.50
Goose ramps on schedule; gold ~$4,000
Bull Case
$11.94
M&A at ~1.2× NAV; full Goose + Fekola UG at $4,500 gold
DCF Summary
DCF awaiting Phase 2+
Discounted cash-flow model is built once research reaches Deep Dive.
Historical Multiples
Multiple history pending
This section is being deepened.
Peer Comparison
S5Financials
Income statement pending
Awaiting SEC filing backfill.
Balance sheet pending
Awaiting SEC filing backfill.
Cash flow pending
Awaiting SEC filing backfill.
Source: SEC 40-F / company IR. AISC ~$1,370/oz Q1; cash ~$387M (Dec 2024). Five-year statement backfill pending.
S6Catalysts
2025
Producthigh relevance
Goose project FIRST GOLD (Nunavut)
De-risks the growth story; ~85% probability per company guidance.
Q4 2025
Product
Fekola underground first ore
Cost-reduction catalyst.
End-Jun
Regulatoryhigh relevance
Fekola permit decision (Mali)
Binary geopolitical event; ~55–57% of production.
Mid-2025
Macro
Prepaid gold contracts expire
Removes a cap on upside participation — earnings catalyst.
S7Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mali permit / geopolitics | Regulatory | High | Medium | ~55–57% of production; Fekola permit is a binary end-June outcome; nationalization is the tail risk. |
| Gold price reversal | Market/Macro | Medium | Medium | Direct hit to revenue and FCF given operating leverage. |
| Goose AISC / capex higher than guided | Execution | Medium | Medium | Goose AISC ~$1,000–1,100/oz and capex ~$1.0–1.1B; lower project IRR than early estimates. |
S8Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$2.60$4.68$4.90
RSI (14)
64
neutral
50-Day MA
$4.30
+8.8%above
200-Day MA
$3.70
+26.5%above
Avg Vol (30d)
18M
+22%vs average
Support Levels
$4.30$3.90
Resistance Levels
$4.90$5.40
Price path reconstructed from the 52-week range, current price, and 50/200-day moving averages — connect a live market-data feed for production.
S9Ownership & Insider Activity
Top Institutional Holders via 13F filings
13F holdings pending
Institutional holder detail awaiting filing.
Insider Activity
Insider ownership ~1.5%; institutional ownership ~55%.
Insider transactions pending
This section is being deepened.
S10Peer Comparison
S11Research Notes
2026-06-01Internal
Gold-torque + dividend profile
Diversified producer with operating leverage to gold plus a 3.4% yield. Fekola permit (Mali) and Goose ramp are the watch items; Goose AISC corrected upward to ~$1,000–1,100/oz.